V-Lab
CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
60.14%
decreased by 3.12%
1 Week
63.20%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
69.81%
increased by 6.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -4.11) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0712 | 0.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1189 | 33.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7930 | 195.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -4.1119 | -23.39*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
Other CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices