V-Lab
CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
68.32%
decreased by 2.05%
1 Week
69.79%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
73.10%
increased by 2.73%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 03:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -4.11) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0615 | 0.12 |
| αARCH | 0.1188 | 8.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7934 | 48.95*** |
| γleverage | -4.1060 | -5.84*** |
0.912
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0615 | 0.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1188 | 8.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7934 | 48.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -4.1060 | -5.84*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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