Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

60.14%

decreased by 3.12%

1 Week

63.20%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

69.81%

increased by 6.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -4.11) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0712
0.55
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1189
33.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7930
195.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-4.1119
-23.39***

Persistence:

0.912

Half-life:

8 days