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CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

68.32%

decreased by 2.05%

1 Week

69.79%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Month

73.10%

increased by 2.73%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 03:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -4.11) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0615
0.12
αARCH0.1188
8.45***
βGARCH0.7934
48.95***
γleverage-4.1060
-5.84***

0.912

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0615
0.12
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1188
8.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7934
48.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-4.1060
-5.84***

Persistence:

0.912

Half-life:

8 days