V-Lab
CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
49.44%
increased by 3.08%
1 Week
55.49%
increased by 9.13%
1 Month
67.06%
increased by 20.70%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 24.1782 | 12.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1733 | 23.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9043 | 116.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6928 | 9.97*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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