Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

77.91%

decreased by 4.16%

1 Week

77.83%

decreased by 4.24%

1 Month

77.66%

decreased by 4.41%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:45 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.71 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run24.0054
3.22***
αscore0.1732
5.96***
βpersistence0.9043
29.34***
νDF4.7080
2.49**

0.904

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

24.0054
3.22***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1732
5.96***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9043
29.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7080
2.49**

Persistence:

0.904

Half-life:

7 days