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CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

49.44%

increased by 3.08%

1 Week

55.49%

increased by 9.13%

1 Month

67.06%

increased by 20.70%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

24.1782
12.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1733
23.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9043
116.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6928
9.97***

Persistence:

0.904

Half-life:

7 days