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V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

54.17%

decreased by 5.14%

1 Week

58.97%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

68.52%

increased by 9.21%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.70 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst24.0850
3.20***
αARCH0.1734
5.96***
βGARCH0.9046
29.23***
νDF4.7005
2.50**

0.905

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

24.0850
3.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1734
5.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9046
29.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7005
2.50**

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days