V-Lab
CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
59.32%
decreased by 4.18%
1 Week
62.95%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
70.40%
increased by 6.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 24.1222 | 3.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1736 | 5.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9047 | 29.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6963 | 2.50** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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