CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
63.95%
decreased by 6.44%
1 Week
66.63%
decreased by 3.76%
1 Month
72.26%
increased by 1.87%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 24.2459 | 12.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1739 | 23.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9050 | 116.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6971 | 9.99*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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