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V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

59.32%

decreased by 4.18%

1 Week

62.95%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

70.40%

increased by 6.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

24.1222
3.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1736
5.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9047
29.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6963
2.50**

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days