CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
77.91%
decreased by 4.16%
1 Week
77.83%
decreased by 4.24%
1 Month
77.66%
decreased by 4.41%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.71 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 24.0054 | 3.22*** |
| αscore | 0.1732 | 5.96*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9043 | 29.34*** |
| νDF | 4.7080 | 2.49** |
0.904
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 24.0054 | 3.22*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1732 | 5.96*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9043 | 29.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7080 | 2.49** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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