V-Lab
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
83.86%
decreased by 7.19%
1 Week
84.83%
decreased by 6.22%
1 Month
86.92%
decreased by 4.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 12:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.88 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 31.5210 | 4.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1007 | 5.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9005 | 34.64*** |
| νDF | 5.8764 | 1.16 |
0.901
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 31.5210 | 4.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1007 | 5.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9005 | 34.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8764 | 1.16 |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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