CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
77.28%
increased by 8.40%
1 Week
79.53%
increased by 10.65%
1 Month
84.23%
increased by 15.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.87 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 31.4326 | 4.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.1005 | 5.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9001 | 34.62*** |
| νDF | 5.8710 | 1.16 |
0.900
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 31.4326 | 4.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1005 | 5.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9001 | 34.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8710 | 1.16 |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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