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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

77.28%

increased by 8.40%

1 Week

79.53%

increased by 10.65%

1 Month

84.23%

increased by 15.35%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.87 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst31.4326
4.90***
αARCH0.1005
5.01***
βGARCH0.9001
34.62***
νDF5.8710
1.16

0.900

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.4326
4.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1005
5.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9001
34.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8710
1.16

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days