V-Lab
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
102.41%
increased by 8.58%
1 Week
100.13%
increased by 6.30%
1 Month
94.95%
increased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.86 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 31.4640 | 4.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1006 | 5.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9002 | 34.51*** |
| νDF | 5.8643 | 1.16 |
0.900
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 31.4640 | 4.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1006 | 5.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9002 | 34.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8643 | 1.16 |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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