V-Lab
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
92.07%
increased by 6.06%
1 Week
91.55%
increased by 5.54%
1 Month
90.41%
increased by 4.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 31.5482 | 19.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1011 | 20.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9005 | 137.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8394 | 4.69*** |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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