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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

114.80%

increased by 24.38%

1 Week

110.69%

increased by 20.27%

1 Month

101.05%

increased by 10.63%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 6.06 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run31.6374
5.00***
αscore0.0997
5.02***
βpersistence0.9019
35.74***
νDF6.0558
1.11

0.902

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

31.6374
5.00***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0997
5.02***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9019
35.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0558
1.11

Persistence:

0.902

Half-life:

7 days