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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

83.86%

decreased by 7.19%

1 Week

84.83%

decreased by 6.22%

1 Month

86.92%

decreased by 4.13%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 12:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.88 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst31.5210
4.89***
αARCH0.1007
5.02***
βGARCH0.9005
34.64***
νDF5.8764
1.16

0.901

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.5210
4.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1007
5.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9005
34.64***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8764
1.16

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days