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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

97.11%

increased by 12.85%

1 Week

95.71%

increased by 11.45%

1 Month

92.58%

increased by 8.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.4777
19.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1006
20.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9006
137.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8430
4.67***

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days