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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

92.07%

increased by 6.06%

1 Week

91.55%

increased by 5.54%

1 Month

90.41%

increased by 4.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.5482
19.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1011
20.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9005
137.42***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8394
4.69***

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days