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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

102.41%

increased by 8.58%

1 Week

100.13%

increased by 6.30%

1 Month

94.95%

increased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.86 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst31.4640
4.89***
αARCH0.1006
5.02***
βGARCH0.9002
34.51***
νDF5.8643
1.16

0.900

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.4640
4.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1006
5.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9002
34.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8643
1.16

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days