CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
114.80%
increased by 24.38%
1 Week
110.69%
increased by 20.27%
1 Month
101.05%
increased by 10.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 6.06 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 31.6374 | 5.00*** |
| αscore | 0.0997 | 5.02*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9019 | 35.74*** |
| νDF | 6.0558 | 1.11 |
0.902
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 31.6374 | 5.00*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0997 | 5.02*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9019 | 35.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0558 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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