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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

93.06%

increased by 0.15%

1 Week

92.34%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Month

90.76%

decreased by 2.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.86 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst31.4527
4.88***
αARCH0.1008
5.03***
βGARCH0.9002
34.46***
νDF5.8561
1.17

0.900

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.4527
4.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1008
5.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9002
34.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8561
1.17

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days