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CBOE Google Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

81.13%

decreased by 8.09%

1 Week

90.16%

increased by 0.94%

1 Month

109.30%

increased by 20.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Google Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 2.83 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst68.7198
0.94
αARCH0.1294
3.77***
βGARCH0.9222
10.58***
νDF2.8298
3.13***

0.922

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

68.7198
0.94
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1294
3.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9222
10.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8298
3.13***

Persistence:

0.922

Half-life:

9 days