V-Lab
CBOE Google Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
81.13%
decreased by 8.09%
1 Week
90.16%
increased by 0.94%
1 Month
109.30%
increased by 20.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 2.83 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 68.7198 | 0.94 |
| αARCH | 0.1294 | 3.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9222 | 10.58*** |
| νDF | 2.8298 | 3.13*** |
0.922
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 68.7198 | 0.94 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1294 | 3.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9222 | 10.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8298 | 3.13*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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