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CBOE Google Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

164.06%

increased by 5.59%

1 Week

159.74%

increased by 1.27%

1 Month

148.55%

decreased by 9.92%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 12:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Google Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 2.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run68.3482
0.95
αscore0.1296
3.81***
βpersistence0.9220
10.70***
νDF2.8397
3.12***

0.922

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

68.3482
0.95
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1296
3.81***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9220
10.70***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8397
3.12***

Persistence:

0.922

Half-life:

9 days