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CBOE Google Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

96.14%

increased by 8.99%

1 Week

101.87%

increased by 14.72%

1 Month

114.90%

increased by 27.75%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Google Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 2.83 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst68.4167
0.93
αARCH0.1289
3.80***
βGARCH0.9234
10.70***
νDF2.8319
3.13***

0.923

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

68.4167
0.93
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1289
3.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9234
10.70***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8319
3.13***

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days