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CBOE Google Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

85.72%

decreased by 9.60%

1 Week

93.92%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Month

111.44%

increased by 16.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Google Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

68.7562
3.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1290
14.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9200
41.61***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8317
12.28***

Persistence:

0.920

Half-life:

8 days