V-Lab
CBOE Google Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
96.14%
increased by 8.99%
1 Week
101.87%
increased by 14.72%
1 Month
114.90%
increased by 27.75%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 2.83 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 68.4167 | 0.93 |
| αARCH | 0.1289 | 3.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9234 | 10.70*** |
| νDF | 2.8319 | 3.13*** |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 68.4167 | 0.93 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1289 | 3.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9234 | 10.70*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8319 | 3.13*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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