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V-Lab

Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

29.60%

increased by 0.11%

1 Week

30.25%

increased by 0.76%

1 Month

32.42%

increased by 2.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 29, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.3082
5.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0930
33.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9794
283.98***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3364
12.00***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days