V-Lab
Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
39.41%
increased by 8.34%
1 Week
39.56%
increased by 8.49%
1 Month
40.04%
increased by 8.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2001 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-lifev = 4.44 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 7.0941 | 1.64 |
| αARCH | 0.0989 | 8.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9752 | 66.33*** |
| νDF | 4.4406 | 2.87*** |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.0941 | 1.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0989 | 8.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9752 | 66.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4406 | 2.87*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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