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Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

39.41%

increased by 8.34%

1 Week

39.56%

increased by 8.49%

1 Month

40.04%

increased by 8.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 29, 2001 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-lifev = 4.44 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst7.0941
1.64
αARCH0.0989
8.23***
βGARCH0.9752
66.33***
νDF4.4406
2.87***

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.0941
1.64
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0989
8.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9752
66.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4406
2.87***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days