V-Lab
Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
29.60%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
30.25%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
32.42%
increased by 2.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.3082 | 5.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0930 | 33.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9794 | 283.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3364 | 12.00*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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