V-Lab
Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
36.35%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Week
39.99%
increased by 1.83%
1 Month
45.85%
increased by 7.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6649 | 7.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2119 | 6.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6529 | 17.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0214 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | 0.1409 | 1.65* |
| γ3 | -0.2615 | -4.44*** |
| γ4 | 0.2528 | 3.53*** |
| γ5 | -0.2310 | -2.51** |
| γ6 | 0.2094 | 2.35** |
| γ7 | -0.1578 | -2.14** |
| γ8 | 0.1509 | 1.04 |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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