V-Lab
CBOE Apple Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
78.70%
increased by 4.10%
1 Week
82.01%
increased by 7.41%
1 Month
85.14%
increased by 10.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0026 | 10.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.1224 | 4.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6042 | 6.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0040 | -1.49 |
0.727
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0026 | 10.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1224 | 4.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6042 | 6.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0040 | -1.49 |
Persistence:
0.727
Half-life:
2 days
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