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V-Lab

CBOE Apple Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

83.03%

decreased by 1.63%

1 Week

85.80%

increased by 1.14%

1 Month

88.42%

increased by 3.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Apple Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0085
10.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1222
4.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6023
6.54***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0034
-1.23

Persistence:

0.724

Half-life:

2 days