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V-Lab

CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

139.49%

increased by 0.89%

1 Week

153.90%

increased by 15.30%

1 Month

172.99%

increased by 34.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2144
5.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1483
3.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6742
12.68***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0403
-0.37
γ20.1744
1.10
γ3-0.2486
-2.26**
γ40.2663
2.50**
γ5-0.4242
-3.26***
γ60.8085
4.44***

Persistence:

0.823

Half-life:

4 days