V-Lab
CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
139.49%
increased by 0.89%
1 Week
153.90%
increased by 15.30%
1 Month
172.99%
increased by 34.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2144 | 5.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1483 | 3.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6742 | 12.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0403 | -0.37 |
| γ2 | 0.1744 | 1.10 |
| γ3 | -0.2486 | -2.26** |
| γ4 | 0.2663 | 2.50** |
| γ5 | -0.4242 | -3.26*** |
| γ6 | 0.8085 | 4.44*** |
Persistence:
0.823
Half-life:
4 days
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