CBOE IBM Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
143.54%
increased by 26.34%
1 Week
144.57%
increased by 27.37%
1 Month
145.03%
increased by 27.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9002 | 7.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3767 | 5.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0994 | 1.86* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -0.22 |
Persistence:
0.476
Half-life:
1 days
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