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V-Lab

CBOE IBM Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

143.54%

increased by 26.34%

1 Week

144.57%

increased by 27.37%

1 Month

145.03%

increased by 27.83%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE IBM Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9002
7.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3767
5.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0994
1.86*
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-0.22

Persistence:

0.476

Half-life:

1 days