V-Lab
CBOE IBM Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
109.13%
increased by 3.23%
1 Week
128.60%
increased by 22.70%
1 Month
136.44%
increased by 30.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8907 | 9.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.3801 | 5.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0965 | 1.86* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0018 | -2.22** |
0.477
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8907 | 9.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3801 | 5.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0965 | 1.86* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0018 | -2.22** |
Persistence:
0.477
Half-life:
1 days
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