V-Lab
CBOE IBM Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
190.13%
increased by 66.89%
1 Week
160.49%
increased by 37.25%
1 Month
145.36%
increased by 22.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8782 | 9.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3780 | 5.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0952 | 1.84* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0019 | -2.34** |
Persistence:
0.473
Half-life:
1 days
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