V-Lab
CBOE IBM Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
106.47%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
128.31%
increased by 21.38%
1 Month
136.94%
increased by 30.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8831 | 9.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3792 | 5.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0950 | 1.84* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0019 | -2.30** |
Persistence:
0.474
Half-life:
1 days
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