V-Lab
CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
146.77%
increased by 14.08%
1 Week
147.98%
increased by 15.29%
1 Month
149.65%
increased by 16.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7392 | 5.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1427 | 5.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6686 | 9.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1615 | -1.04 |
| γ2 | 0.1857 | 0.80 |
| γ3 | -0.0015 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.0636 | -0.40 |
| γ5 | 0.0909 | 0.67 |
| γ6 | -0.2204 | -1.42 |
| γ7 | 0.4266 | 2.98*** |
| γ8 | -0.3758 | -4.41*** |
Persistence:
0.811
Half-life:
3 days
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