CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
119.95%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
127.79%
increased by 8.17%
1 Month
137.99%
increased by 18.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7382 | 5.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1431 | 5.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6673 | 9.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1629 | -1.05 |
| γ2 | 0.1869 | 0.80 |
| γ3 | -0.0012 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.0631 | -0.40 |
| γ5 | 0.0899 | 0.66 |
| γ6 | -0.2207 | -1.40 |
| γ7 | 0.4260 | 2.95*** |
| γ8 | -0.3721 | -4.33*** |
Persistence:
0.810
Half-life:
3 days
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