V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
217.09%
increased by 5.65%
1 Week
223.74%
increased by 12.30%
1 Month
228.92%
increased by 17.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9923 | 6.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1210 | 3.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5495 | 6.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0907 | 0.91 |
| γ2 | -0.0841 | -0.58 |
| γ3 | -0.0487 | -0.46 |
| γ4 | 0.0903 | 0.91 |
| γ5 | -0.1854 | -1.80* |
| γ6 | 0.3290 | 3.72*** |
| γ7 | -0.2799 | -4.79*** |
Persistence:
0.671
Half-life:
2 days
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