V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
255.95%
increased by 18.02%
1 Week
258.03%
increased by 20.10%
1 Month
259.69%
increased by 21.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0088 | 6.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1220 | 3.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5484 | 6.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1284 | 1.06 |
| γ2 | -0.1428 | -0.80 |
| γ3 | 0.0376 | 0.27 |
| γ4 | -0.1053 | -0.68 |
| γ5 | 0.1806 | 1.10 |
| γ6 | -0.3004 | -1.99** |
| γ7 | 0.4925 | 3.78*** |
| γ8 | -0.4339 | -5.23*** |
Persistence:
0.670
Half-life:
2 days
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