V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
236.52%
1 Week
227.63%
1 Month
215.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1684 | 18.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6940 | 39.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1684 | -8.98*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8585 | 0.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0059 | 0.70 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9885 | 47.76*** |
Persistence:
0.778
Half-life:
3 days
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