V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
221.29%
1 Week
215.53%
1 Month
207.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.1680 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6947 | 12.80*** |
| γleverage | -0.1680 | -3.20*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.8646 | 0.69 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0057 | 1.29 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9887 | 81.81*** |
0.779
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1680 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6947 | 12.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1680 | -3.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8646 | 0.69 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0057 | 1.29 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9887 | 81.81*** |
Persistence:
0.779
Half-life:
3 days
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