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CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

221.29%

increased by 3.78%

1 Week

215.53%

decreased by 1.98%

1 Month

207.64%

decreased by 9.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.1680
4.47***
βGARCH0.6947
12.80***
γleverage-0.1680
-3.20***
λ₁tau intercept0.8646
0.69
λ₂forecast adj.0.0057
1.29
λ₃tau persistence0.9887
81.81***

0.779

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1680
4.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6947
12.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1680
-3.20***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.8646
0.69
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0057
1.29
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9887
81.81***

Persistence:

0.779

Half-life:

3 days