Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

236.52%

increased by 30.68%

1 Week

227.63%

increased by 21.79%

1 Month

215.33%

increased by 9.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1684
18.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6940
39.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1684
-8.98***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.8585
0.41
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0059
0.70
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9885
47.76***

Persistence:

0.778

Half-life:

3 days