V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
208.77%
1 Week
208.21%
1 Month
207.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1687 | 18.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6939 | 39.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1687 | -9.08*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8593 | 0.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0058 | 0.69 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9886 | 47.58*** |
Persistence:
0.778
Half-life:
3 days
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