Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

49.30%

increased by 0.21%

1 Week

64.78%

increased by 15.69%

1 Month

90.16%

increased by 41.07%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 10, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 257% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 257% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.1887
2.77***
βGARCH0.4724
7.08***
γleverage0.4847
3.11***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.88
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.7986
4.30***

0.904

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1887
2.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4724
7.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4847
3.11***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.88
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7986
4.30***

Persistence:

0.904

Half-life:

7 days