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S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

48.22%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Week

63.99%

increased by 14.98%

1 Month

90.31%

increased by 41.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 256% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 256% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.1898
2.78***
βGARCH0.4761
7.21***
γleverage0.4863
3.16***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.91
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.8060
4.76***

0.909

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1898
2.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4761
7.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4863
3.16***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.91
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8060
4.76***

Persistence:

0.909

Half-life:

7 days