V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
49.30%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
64.78%
increased by 15.69%
1 Month
90.16%
increased by 41.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 10, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 257% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 257% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.1887 | 2.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4724 | 7.08*** |
| γleverage | 0.4847 | 3.11*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.88 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7986 | 4.30*** |
0.904
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1887 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4724 | 7.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4847 | 3.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.88 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7986 | 4.30*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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