S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
53.52%
increased by 0.52%
1 Week
69.54%
increased by 16.54%
1 Month
81.20%
increased by 28.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 104% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3185 | 13.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2162 | 9.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3325 | 4.67*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.22 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6547 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.701
Half-life:
2 days
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