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V-Lab

S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

53.52%

increased by 0.52%

1 Week

69.54%

increased by 16.54%

1 Month

81.20%

increased by 28.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 104% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3185
13.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2162
9.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3325
4.67***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.22
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6547
0.38

Persistence:

0.701

Half-life:

2 days