S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
52.67%
increased by 4.75%
1 Week
66.70%
increased by 18.78%
1 Month
92.23%
increased by 44.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Oct 22, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 255% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 255% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.1918 | 2.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4823 | 7.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.4893 | 3.24*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.96 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8194 | 5.79*** |
0.919
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1918 | 2.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4823 | 7.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4893 | 3.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.96 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8194 | 5.79*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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