Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

52.67%

increased by 4.75%

1 Week

66.70%

increased by 18.78%

1 Month

92.23%

increased by 44.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2015 to Oct 22, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 255% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 255% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.1918
2.80***
βGARCH0.4823
7.45***
γleverage0.4893
3.24***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.96
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.8194
5.79***

0.919

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1918
2.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4823
7.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4893
3.24***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.96
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8194
5.79***

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days