V-Lab
S&P/BMV IPC VIX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
48.22%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
63.99%
increased by 14.98%
1 Month
90.31%
increased by 41.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2015 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 256% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 256% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.1898 | 2.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4761 | 7.21*** |
| γleverage | 0.4863 | 3.16*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.91 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8060 | 4.76*** |
0.909
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1898 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4761 | 7.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4863 | 3.16*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.91 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8060 | 4.76*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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