V-Lab
CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
9.72%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
9.98%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
11.08%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 304% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 304% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.0464 | 1.88* |
| βGARCH | 0.8536 | 47.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.1411 | 5.74*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0899 | 1.29 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3466 | 1.70* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5584 | 2.11** |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0464 | 1.88* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8536 | 47.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1411 | 5.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0899 | 1.29 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3466 | 1.70* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5584 | 2.11** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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