V-Lab
CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
11.85%
increased by 1.42%
1 Week
12.07%
increased by 1.64%
1 Month
12.84%
increased by 2.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 301% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0467 | 7.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8536 | 179.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1404 | 24.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0893 | 1.36 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3435 | 1.31 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5627 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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