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CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

9.72%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

9.98%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

11.08%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 304% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 304% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.0464
1.88*
βGARCH0.8536
47.19***
γleverage0.1411
5.74***
λ₁tau intercept0.0899
1.29
λ₂forecast adj.0.3466
1.70*
λ₃tau persistence0.5584
2.11**

0.971

Persistence

23d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0464
1.88*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8536
47.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1411
5.74***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0899
1.29
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3466
1.70*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5584
2.11**

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days