V-Lab
CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.05%
increased by 0.90%
1 Week
11.38%
increased by 1.23%
1 Month
12.32%
increased by 2.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 305% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0464 | 7.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8535 | 179.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1414 | 24.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0905 | 1.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3475 | 1.30 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5577 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
Other CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices