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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

11.85%

increased by 1.42%

1 Week

12.07%

increased by 1.64%

1 Month

12.84%

increased by 2.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 301% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0467
7.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8536
179.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1404
24.09***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0893
1.36
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3435
1.31
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5627
1.69*

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days