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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

11.05%

increased by 0.90%

1 Week

11.38%

increased by 1.23%

1 Month

12.32%

increased by 2.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 305% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0464
7.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8535
179.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1414
24.33***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0905
1.35
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3475
1.30
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5577
1.64

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days