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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

10.89%

increased by 0.84%

1 Week

11.15%

increased by 1.10%

1 Month

12.04%

increased by 1.99%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 209% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0205
19.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1202
19.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8698
166.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3378
9.91***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6061
32.64***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days