V-Lab
CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
10.89%
increased by 0.84%
1 Week
11.15%
increased by 1.10%
1 Month
12.04%
increased by 1.99%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 209% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0205 | 19.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1202 | 19.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8698 | 166.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3378 | 9.91*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6061 | 32.64*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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