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V-Lab

DAX Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

86.79%

decreased by 4.13%

1 Week

87.53%

decreased by 3.39%

1 Month

89.76%

decreased by 1.16%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of DAX Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1838
15.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0753
33.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8994
258.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.7905
-23.58***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.7919
27.30***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days