V-Lab
DAX Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
78.14%
increased by 2.01%
1 Week
79.48%
increased by 3.35%
1 Month
83.19%
increased by 7.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7477 | 6.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.1021 | 8.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8441 | 49.95*** |
0.946
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7477 | 6.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1021 | 8.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8441 | 49.95*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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