V-Lab
S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
116.78%
increased by 14.42%
1 Week
115.10%
increased by 12.74%
1 Month
111.50%
increased by 9.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 5.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.1441 | 5.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7476 | 22.86*** |
0.892
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1441 | 5.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7476 | 22.86*** |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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