S&P / ASX 200 Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
80.51%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
86.47%
increased by 5.19%
1 Month
97.72%
increased by 16.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 5.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.1435 | 5.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7478 | 22.84*** |
0.891
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1435 | 5.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7478 | 22.84*** |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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