CBOE Apple Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
88.93%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
92.49%
increased by 2.84%
1 Month
99.32%
increased by 9.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 2.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.0604 | 4.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8260 | 17.83*** |
0.886
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0604 | 4.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8260 | 17.83*** |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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