V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
57.89%
increased by 21.04%
1 Week
56.93%
increased by 20.08%
1 Month
53.95%
increased by 17.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3767 | 3.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0939 | 5.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8605 | 36.91*** |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3767 | 3.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0939 | 5.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8605 | 36.91*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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