V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
48.51%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
48.26%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
47.50%
decreased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3766 | 15.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0942 | 23.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8600 | 146.64*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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