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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

57.89%

increased by 21.04%

1 Week

56.93%

increased by 20.08%

1 Month

53.95%

increased by 17.10%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 1995 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.

σ

GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3767
3.78***
αARCH0.0939
5.87***
βGARCH0.8605
36.91***

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3767
3.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0939
5.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8605
36.91***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days