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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

48.51%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

48.26%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

47.50%

decreased by 1.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 1995 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3766
15.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0942
23.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8600
146.64***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days