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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

48.88%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

48.64%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Month

47.88%

decreased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2629
5.47***
αARCH0.1745
6.86***
βGARCH0.7929
31.56***

0.967

Persistence

21d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2629
5.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1745
6.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7929
31.56***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days