V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
34.98%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
35.70%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
37.95%
increased by 3.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2645 | 21.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1774 | 27.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7898 | 122.80*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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