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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

34.98%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

35.70%

increased by 0.76%

1 Month

37.95%

increased by 3.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2645
21.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1774
27.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7898
122.80***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days