ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
48.88%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
48.64%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
47.88%
decreased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2629 | 5.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.1745 | 6.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7929 | 31.56*** |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2629 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1745 | 6.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7929 | 31.56*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
Other ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices