V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
29.99%
increased by 2.09%
1 Week
29.68%
increased by 1.78%
1 Month
28.99%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3002 | 4.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1706 | 4.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7302 | 18.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.2332 | 2.44** |
| γ2 | -0.3735 | -2.66*** |
| γ3 | 0.2853 | 3.50*** |
| γ4 | -0.1770 | -2.18** |
| γ5 | -0.0365 | -0.43 |
| γ6 | 0.1133 | 2.02** |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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