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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026

1 Day

39.09%

increased by 3.97%

1 Week

37.76%

increased by 2.64%

1 Month

34.56%

decreased by 0.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/05/2024

to

11/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Nov 5, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.2927
4.64***
αARCH0.1685
5.03***
βGARCH0.7370
18.96***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.2224
2.39**
γ2-0.3593
-2.61***
γ30.2879
3.56***
γ4-0.2038
-2.68***
γ50.0105
0.13
γ60.0739
1.28

0.906

Persistence

7d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2927
4.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1685
5.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7370
18.96***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.2224
2.39**
γ2-0.3593
-2.61***
γ30.2879
3.56***
γ4-0.2038
-2.68***
γ50.0105
0.13
γ60.0739
1.28

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days