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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

29.99%

increased by 2.09%

1 Week

29.68%

increased by 1.78%

1 Month

28.99%

increased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3002
4.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1706
4.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7302
18.01***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.2332
2.44**
γ2-0.3735
-2.66***
γ30.2853
3.50***
γ4-0.1770
-2.18**
γ5-0.0365
-0.43
γ60.1133
2.02**

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days