V-Lab
Cboe 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Volatility Basis Point Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
86.27%
decreased by 5.80%
1 Week
88.23%
decreased by 3.84%
1 Month
91.47%
decreased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2018 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0190 | 4.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1446 | 3.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7086 | 12.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0266 | 0.09 |
| γ2 | 0.1624 | 0.34 |
| γ3 | -0.5640 | -1.30 |
| γ4 | 0.6753 | 1.78* |
| γ5 | -0.3896 | -1.74* |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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