Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
34.32%
decreased by 1.62%
1 Week
36.29%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
39.61%
increased by 3.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6785 | 7.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2117 | 6.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6523 | 17.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0078 | -0.13 |
| γ2 | 0.1191 | 1.40 |
| γ3 | -0.2466 | -4.18*** |
| γ4 | 0.2397 | 3.35*** |
| γ5 | -0.2174 | -2.36** |
| γ6 | 0.1905 | 2.14** |
| γ7 | -0.1219 | -1.87* |
| γ8 | 0.0635 | 1.51 |
Persistence:
0.864
Half-life:
5 days
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