V-Lab
Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
58.61%
increased by 25.78%
1 Week
53.87%
increased by 21.04%
1 Month
44.87%
increased by 12.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2001 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6207 | 7.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2115 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6365 | 17.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1283 | -1.59 |
| γ2 | 0.3411 | 2.79*** |
| γ3 | -0.3703 | -3.75*** |
| γ4 | 0.1770 | 1.86* |
| γ5 | 0.0438 | 0.49 |
| γ6 | -0.2011 | -1.80* |
| γ7 | 0.2556 | 2.07** |
| γ8 | -0.1796 | -1.71* |
| γ9 | 0.0667 | 0.59 |
| γ10 | 0.0112 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.848
Half-life:
4 days
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