CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
448.30%
decreased by 18.51%
1 Week
438.86%
decreased by 27.95%
1 Month
436.64%
decreased by 30.17%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7941 | 12.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1434 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0306 | -3.05*** |
Persistence:
0.143
Half-life:
0 days
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