V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
400.45%
decreased by 34.98%
1 Week
422.79%
decreased by 12.64%
1 Month
427.79%
decreased by 7.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 02:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8106 | 12.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.1415 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0257 | -2.91*** |
0.141
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8106 | 12.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1415 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0257 | -2.91*** |
Persistence:
0.141
Half-life:
0 days
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