V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
471.32%
increased by 69.23%
1 Week
439.84%
increased by 37.75%
1 Month
432.23%
increased by 30.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8107 | 12.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.1417 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0259 | -2.89*** |
0.142
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8107 | 12.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1417 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0259 | -2.89*** |
Persistence:
0.142
Half-life:
0 days
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