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V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

400.45%

decreased by 34.98%

1 Week

422.79%

decreased by 12.64%

1 Month

427.79%

decreased by 7.64%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 02:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8106
12.46***
αARCH0.1415
3.15***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0257
-2.91***

0.141

Persistence

0d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8106
12.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1415
3.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0257
-2.91***

Persistence:

0.141

Half-life:

0 days