Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

448.30%

decreased by 18.51%

1 Week

438.86%

decreased by 27.95%

1 Month

436.64%

decreased by 30.17%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7941
12.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1434
3.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0306
-3.05***

Persistence:

0.143

Half-life:

0 days