V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
400.25%
decreased by 7.91%
1 Week
424.46%
increased by 16.30%
1 Month
429.88%
increased by 21.72%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8046 | 12.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1422 | 3.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0273 | -2.97*** |
Persistence:
0.142
Half-life:
0 days
Other CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices