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V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

471.32%

increased by 69.23%

1 Week

439.84%

increased by 37.75%

1 Month

432.23%

increased by 30.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8107
12.43***
αARCH0.1417
3.15***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0259
-2.89***

0.142

Persistence

0d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8107
12.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1417
3.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0259
-2.89***

Persistence:

0.142

Half-life:

0 days