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V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

398.54%

decreased by 31.78%

1 Week

419.44%

decreased by 10.88%

1 Month

424.14%

decreased by 6.18%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8223
12.73***
αARCH0.1439
3.21***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0227
-2.77***

0.144

Persistence

0d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8223
12.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1439
3.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0227
-2.77***

Persistence:

0.144

Half-life:

0 days