V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
79.53%
decreased by 6.14%
1 Week
80.78%
decreased by 4.89%
1 Month
83.28%
decreased by 2.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9594 | 7.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1582 | 5.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7297 | 15.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0393 | -1.65* |
| γ2 | 0.0465 | 1.30 |
| γ3 | 0.0336 | 1.22 |
| γ4 | -0.0892 | -3.30*** |
| γ5 | 0.0657 | 3.35*** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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