V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
101.81%
increased by 24.07%
1 Week
99.03%
increased by 21.29%
1 Month
92.92%
increased by 15.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9601 | 7.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.1533 | 5.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7400 | 15.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0397 | -1.67* |
| γ2 | 0.0485 | 1.36 |
| γ3 | 0.0295 | 1.08 |
| γ4 | -0.0844 | -3.14*** |
| γ5 | 0.0626 | 3.21*** |
0.893
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9601 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1533 | 5.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7400 | 15.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0397 | -1.67* |
| γ2 | 0.0485 | 1.36 |
| γ3 | 0.0295 | 1.08 |
| γ4 | -0.0844 | -3.14*** |
| γ5 | 0.0626 | 3.21*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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