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V-Lab

TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

101.81%

increased by 24.07%

1 Week

99.03%

increased by 21.29%

1 Month

92.92%

increased by 15.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9601
7.56***
αARCH0.1533
5.09***
βGARCH0.7400
15.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0397
-1.67*
γ20.0485
1.36
γ30.0295
1.08
γ4-0.0844
-3.14***
γ50.0626
3.21***

0.893

Persistence

6d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9601
7.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1533
5.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7400
15.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0397
-1.67*
γ20.0485
1.36
γ30.0295
1.08
γ4-0.0844
-3.14***
γ50.0626
3.21***

Persistence:

0.893

Half-life:

6 days