V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
122.82%
decreased by 9.30%
1 Week
131.97%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
147.27%
increased by 15.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8712 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2057 | 7.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6614 | 15.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1748 | 0.74 |
| γ2 | -0.1422 | -0.41 |
| γ3 | -0.1323 | -0.67 |
| γ4 | 0.1464 | 0.79 |
| γ5 | 0.1265 | 0.55 |
| γ6 | -0.4630 | -1.90* |
| γ7 | 0.5622 | 2.41** |
| γ8 | -0.7277 | -2.67*** |
| γ9 | 0.9050 | 3.38*** |
| γ10 | -0.6011 | -3.77*** |
Persistence:
0.867
Half-life:
5 days
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