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V-Lab

CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

144.81%

decreased by 2.82%

1 Week

153.95%

increased by 6.32%

1 Month

169.47%

increased by 21.84%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8696
4.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2057
7.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6617
15.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.1727
0.72
γ2-0.1372
-0.39
γ3-0.1365
-0.69
γ40.1452
0.78
γ50.1350
0.59
γ6-0.4755
-1.96*
γ70.5778
2.46**
γ8-0.7478
-2.72***
γ90.9216
3.44***
γ10-0.6084
-3.81***

Persistence:

0.867

Half-life:

5 days