V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
117.70%
decreased by 2.86%
1 Week
133.19%
increased by 12.63%
1 Month
157.85%
increased by 37.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8707 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2055 | 7.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6629 | 15.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1725 | 0.73 |
| γ2 | -0.1413 | -0.41 |
| γ3 | -0.1308 | -0.66 |
| γ4 | 0.1533 | 0.83 |
| γ5 | 0.1062 | 0.46 |
| γ6 | -0.4337 | -1.77* |
| γ7 | 0.5240 | 2.25** |
| γ8 | -0.6775 | -2.53** |
| γ9 | 0.8541 | 3.16*** |
| γ10 | -0.5701 | -3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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