Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

82.85%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

84.04%

increased by 1.20%

1 Month

86.30%

increased by 3.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7277
10.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1104
7.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7666
24.46***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0371
2.85***
γ2-0.0629
-3.16***
γ30.0389
2.36**
γ4-0.0319
-1.87*
γ50.0290
2.05**

Persistence:

0.877

Half-life:

5 days