V-Lab
CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
78.41%
increased by 2.74%
1 Week
80.57%
increased by 4.90%
1 Month
84.57%
increased by 8.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7266 | 10.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1102 | 7.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7665 | 24.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0364 | 2.82*** |
| γ2 | -0.0618 | -3.13*** |
| γ3 | 0.0381 | 2.34** |
| γ4 | -0.0312 | -1.86* |
| γ5 | 0.0287 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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