V-Lab
CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
83.31%
decreased by 4.89%
1 Week
84.42%
decreased by 3.78%
1 Month
86.51%
decreased by 1.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7271 | 10.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1104 | 7.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7665 | 24.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0367 | 2.83*** |
| γ2 | -0.0623 | -3.14*** |
| γ3 | 0.0383 | 2.34** |
| γ4 | -0.0313 | -1.85* |
| γ5 | 0.0285 | 2.03** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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