CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
101.12%
decreased by 7.23%
1 Week
100.91%
decreased by 7.44%
1 Month
100.27%
decreased by 8.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.97 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2633 | 14.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0780 | 27.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8944 | 254.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -26.50*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9698 | 32.79*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
Other CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices