Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

80.26%

increased by 8.03%

1 Week

81.82%

increased by 9.59%

1 Month

86.54%

increased by 14.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.98 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifeδ = 0.98 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2670
3.61***
αARCH0.0779
6.81***
βGARCH0.8939
63.57***
γleverage-1.0000
-6.27***
δpower0.9753
8.27***

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2670
3.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0779
6.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8939
63.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-6.27***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9753
8.27***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days