CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
80.26%
1 Week
81.82%
1 Month
86.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.98 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2670 | 3.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0779 | 6.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8939 | 63.57*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | -6.27*** |
| δpower | 0.9753 | 8.27*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2670 | 3.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0779 | 6.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8939 | 63.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -6.27*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9753 | 8.27*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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