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V-Lab

CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

101.12%

decreased by 7.23%

1 Week

100.91%

decreased by 7.44%

1 Month

100.27%

decreased by 8.08%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.97 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2633
14.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0780
27.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8944
254.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-26.50***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9698
32.79***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days