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CBOE Google Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

81.76%

decreased by 13.40%

1 Week

104.08%

increased by 8.92%

1 Month

120.74%

increased by 25.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Google Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
1.66*
αARCH0.1798
4.41***
βGARCH0.4979
3.62***
γleverage-0.0137
-0.07
δpower0.5000
2.16**

0.646

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.66*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1798
4.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4979
3.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0137
-0.07
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
2.16**

Persistence:

0.646

Half-life:

2 days