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V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

48.17%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

52.37%

increased by 3.80%

1 Month

63.86%

increased by 15.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. The volatility power δ = 0.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2682
18.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1209
36.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8467
155.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-93.66***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8416
32.90***

Persistence:

0.933

Half-life:

10 days