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CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

83.35%

increased by 11.79%

1 Week

83.20%

increased by 11.64%

1 Month

82.81%

increased by 11.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. The volatility power δ = 0.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifeδ = 0.84 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2659
4.72***
αARCH0.1210
9.10***
βGARCH0.8471
39.14***
γleverage-1.0000
-23.72***
δpower0.8406
8.24***

0.933

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2659
4.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1210
9.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8471
39.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-23.72***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8406
8.24***

Persistence:

0.933

Half-life:

10 days