V-Lab
CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
61.56%
decreased by 4.28%
1 Week
66.13%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
73.71%
increased by 7.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3508 | 21.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2092 | 27.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6561 | 62.40*** |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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