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CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

66.04%

increased by 4.63%

1 Week

69.30%

increased by 7.89%

1 Month

74.88%

increased by 13.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.3264
5.46***
αARCH0.2097
6.92***
βGARCH0.6560
15.67***

0.866

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.3264
5.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2097
6.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6560
15.67***

Persistence:

0.866

Half-life:

5 days