V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
81.53%
decreased by 3.66%
1 Week
83.02%
decreased by 2.17%
1 Month
86.54%
increased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6442 | 5.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1347 | 4.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7851 | 26.06*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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