V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
97.68%
decreased by 8.56%
1 Week
96.79%
decreased by 9.45%
1 Month
94.56%
decreased by 11.68%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6262 | 5.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.1341 | 4.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7866 | 26.41*** |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6262 | 5.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1341 | 4.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7866 | 26.41*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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