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CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

97.68%

decreased by 8.56%

1 Week

96.79%

decreased by 9.45%

1 Month

94.56%

decreased by 11.68%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.6262
5.18***
αARCH0.1341
4.97***
βGARCH0.7866
26.41***

0.921

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6262
5.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1341
4.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7866
26.41***

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days