Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

84.01%

increased by 0.12%

1 Week

83.18%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Month

80.78%

decreased by 3.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 15, 2008 to Oct 15, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 0.94 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifeδ = 0.94 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2096
2.81***
αARCH0.1426
6.84***
βGARCH0.8380
35.65***
γleverage-0.1209
-1.76*
δpower0.9394
4.49***

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2096
2.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1426
6.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8380
35.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1209
-1.76*
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9394
4.49***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days