CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
84.01%
1 Week
83.18%
1 Month
80.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 15, 2008 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 0.94 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2096 | 2.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.1426 | 6.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8380 | 35.65*** |
| γleverage | -0.1209 | -1.76* |
| δpower | 0.9394 | 4.49*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2096 | 2.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1426 | 6.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8380 | 35.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1209 | -1.76* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9394 | 4.49*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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