V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
106.69%
1 Week
103.79%
1 Month
95.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 15, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 28% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.95 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2138 | 11.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1427 | 27.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8380 | 141.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1293 | -7.55*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9542 | 18.26*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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