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V-Lab

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

106.69%

decreased by 2.48%

1 Week

103.79%

decreased by 5.38%

1 Month

95.40%

decreased by 13.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 15, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 28% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.95 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2138
11.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1427
27.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8380
141.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1293
-7.55***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9542
18.26***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days