V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
23.44%
1 Week
25.89%
1 Month
33.03%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2017 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 14% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1161 | 10.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3052 | 20.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6805 | 44.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1329 | -3.80*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 9.43*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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