V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
26.06%
increased by 0.46%
1 Week
30.32%
increased by 4.72%
1 Month
37.55%
increased by 11.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8359 | 17.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2461 | 30.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6416 | 77.91*** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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