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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

26.06%

increased by 0.46%

1 Week

30.32%

increased by 4.72%

1 Month

37.55%

increased by 11.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8359
17.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2461
30.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6416
77.91***

Persistence:

0.888

Half-life:

6 days