V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
92.65%
decreased by 5.95%
1 Week
98.25%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
110.75%
increased by 12.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 01:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 4.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.1676 | 5.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7530 | 19.67*** |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 4.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1676 | 5.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7530 | 19.67*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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