V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
107.85%
decreased by 9.46%
1 Week
110.77%
decreased by 6.54%
1 Month
117.65%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 16.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1678 | 21.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7535 | 78.92*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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