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V-Lab

CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

94.36%

decreased by 3.65%

1 Week

100.66%

increased by 2.65%

1 Month

108.70%

increased by 10.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2916
27.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6352
43.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2575
-14.99***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3009
1.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0106
2.06**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9837
100.21***

Persistence:

0.798

Half-life:

3 days