CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
91.13%
1 Week
96.06%
1 Month
101.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.2913 | 5.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6377 | 14.06*** |
| γleverage | -0.2568 | -3.72*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2923 | 0.81 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0105 | 1.44 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9839 | 76.35*** |
0.801
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2913 | 5.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6377 | 14.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2568 | -3.72*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2923 | 0.81 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0105 | 1.44 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9839 | 76.35*** |
Persistence:
0.801
Half-life:
3 days
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