V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
94.36%
1 Week
100.66%
1 Month
108.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2916 | 27.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6352 | 43.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2575 | -14.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3009 | 1.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0106 | 2.06** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9837 | 100.21*** |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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