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CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

91.13%

decreased by 6.45%

1 Week

96.06%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Month

101.69%

increased by 4.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.2913
5.69***
βGARCH0.6377
14.06***
γleverage-0.2568
-3.72***
λ₁tau intercept0.2923
0.81
λ₂forecast adj.0.0105
1.44
λ₃tau persistence0.9839
76.35***

0.801

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2913
5.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6377
14.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2568
-3.72***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2923
0.81
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0105
1.44
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9839
76.35***

Persistence:

0.801

Half-life:

3 days