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V-Lab

CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

86.60%

decreased by 2.51%

1 Week

95.13%

increased by 6.02%

1 Month

105.98%

increased by 16.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2909
27.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6380
43.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2566
-14.78***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2982
1.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0106
2.08**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9839
102.03***

Persistence:

0.801

Half-life:

3 days