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CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

109.30%

decreased by 8.37%

1 Week

109.83%

decreased by 7.84%

1 Month

110.48%

decreased by 7.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.2917
5.69***
βGARCH0.6375
14.00***
γleverage-0.2581
-3.72***
λ₁tau intercept0.2938
0.81
λ₂forecast adj.0.0105
1.45
λ₃tau persistence0.9840
77.11***

0.800

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2917
5.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6375
14.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2581
-3.72***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2938
0.81
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0105
1.45
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9840
77.11***

Persistence:

0.800

Half-life:

3 days