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CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

84.29%

decreased by 4.04%

1 Week

90.74%

increased by 2.41%

1 Month

98.19%

increased by 9.86%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.2899
5.69***
βGARCH0.6375
14.02***
γleverage-0.2552
-3.71***
λ₁tau intercept0.2945
0.81
λ₂forecast adj.0.0107
1.45
λ₃tau persistence0.9837
75.61***

0.800

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2899
5.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6375
14.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2552
-3.71***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2945
0.81
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0107
1.45
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9837
75.61***

Persistence:

0.800

Half-life:

3 days