CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
110.07%
1 Week
113.65%
1 Month
120.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.1924 | 7.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7756 | 25.80*** |
| γleverage | -0.1561 | -3.92*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0530 | 1.15 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0083 | 1.72* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9907 | 191.37*** |
0.890
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1924 | 7.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7756 | 25.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1561 | -3.92*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0530 | 1.15 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0083 | 1.72* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9907 | 191.37*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
Other CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices