V-Lab
CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
109.04%
1 Week
114.78%
1 Month
125.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.1916 | 7.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7763 | 25.39*** |
| γleverage | -0.1553 | -3.90*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0410 | 0.99 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0076 | 1.76* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9917 | 215.74*** |
0.890
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1916 | 7.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7763 | 25.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1553 | -3.90*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0410 | 0.99 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0076 | 1.76* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9917 | 215.74*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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