CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
104.71%
1 Week
109.87%
1 Month
119.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.1926 | 7.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7755 | 25.69*** |
| γleverage | -0.1563 | -3.92*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0506 | 1.13 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0082 | 1.72* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9909 | 195.33*** |
0.890
Persistence6d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1926 | 7.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7755 | 25.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1563 | -3.92*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0506 | 1.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0082 | 1.72* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9909 | 195.33*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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