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V-Lab

CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

116.70%

increased by 7.20%

1 Week

122.87%

increased by 13.37%

1 Month

134.00%

increased by 24.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1907
29.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7766
76.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1540
-13.86***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0302
1.62
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0069
3.59***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9926
500.32***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days