V-Lab
CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
116.70%
1 Week
122.87%
1 Month
134.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1907 | 29.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7766 | 76.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1540 | -13.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0302 | 1.62 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0069 | 3.59*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9926 | 500.32*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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