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CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

109.04%

decreased by 2.29%

1 Week

114.78%

increased by 3.45%

1 Month

125.13%

increased by 13.80%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1916
7.72***
βGARCH0.7763
25.39***
γleverage-0.1553
-3.90***
λ₁tau intercept0.0410
0.99
λ₂forecast adj.0.0076
1.76*
λ₃tau persistence0.9917
215.74***

0.890

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1916
7.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7763
25.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1553
-3.90***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0410
0.99
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0076
1.76*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9917
215.74***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days