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CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

128.84%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

130.90%

increased by 2.00%

1 Month

134.63%

increased by 5.73%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1912
7.70***
βGARCH0.7766
25.30***
γleverage-0.1546
-3.89***
λ₁tau intercept0.0376
0.93
λ₂forecast adj.0.0073
1.77*
λ₃tau persistence0.9920
223.03***

0.890

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1912
7.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7766
25.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1546
-3.89***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0376
0.93
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0073
1.77*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9920
223.03***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days