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V-Lab

CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

124.92%

decreased by 3.50%

1 Week

130.00%

increased by 1.58%

1 Month

139.49%

increased by 11.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1904
29.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7768
76.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1533
-13.86***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0258
1.48
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0067
3.71***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9930
539.66***

Persistence:

0.891

Half-life:

6 days