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CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

110.07%

decreased by 5.16%

1 Week

113.65%

decreased by 1.58%

1 Month

120.13%

increased by 4.90%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.1924
7.79***
βGARCH0.7756
25.80***
γleverage-0.1561
-3.92***
λ₁tau intercept0.0530
1.15
λ₂forecast adj.0.0083
1.72*
λ₃tau persistence0.9907
191.37***

0.890

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1924
7.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7756
25.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1561
-3.92***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0530
1.15
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0083
1.72*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9907
191.37***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days