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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

101.78%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Week

112.66%

increased by 9.50%

1 Month

124.76%

increased by 21.60%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2764
30.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6230
50.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2394
-24.90***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0131
0.39
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0042
2.10**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9958
408.44***

Persistence:

0.780

Half-life:

3 days