Skip to main content
V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

105.83%

increased by 2.61%

1 Week

115.07%

increased by 11.85%

1 Month

125.64%

increased by 22.42%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2676
30.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6318
51.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2334
-24.74***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0132
0.39
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0044
2.12**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9956
398.90***

Persistence:

0.783

Half-life:

3 days