iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
117.85%
1 Week
122.45%
1 Month
127.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2736 | 30.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6249 | 50.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2373 | -24.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0132 | 0.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0043 | 2.10** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9957 | 402.63*** |
Persistence:
0.780
Half-life:
3 days
Other iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices