iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
101.78%
1 Week
112.66%
1 Month
124.76%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2764 | 30.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6230 | 50.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2394 | -24.90*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0131 | 0.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0042 | 2.10** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9958 | 408.44*** |
Persistence:
0.780
Half-life:
3 days
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