V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Last recorded values (Monday, August 17th, 2026):
1 Day
104.87%
1 Week
114.51%
1 Month
125.49%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.2678 | 6.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6320 | 12.70*** |
| γleverage | -0.2339 | -5.27*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0131 | 0.35 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0043 | 2.46** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9957 | 438.62*** |
0.783
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2678 | 6.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6320 | 12.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2339 | -5.27*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0131 | 0.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0043 | 2.46** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9957 | 438.62*** |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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