V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
105.83%
1 Week
115.07%
1 Month
125.64%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2676 | 30.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6318 | 51.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2334 | -24.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0132 | 0.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0044 | 2.12** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9956 | 398.90*** |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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