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CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

179.03%

increased by 20.85%

1 Week

185.18%

increased by 27.00%

1 Month

195.29%

increased by 37.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow101
αARCH0.2549
7.24***
βGARCH0.5892
11.91***
γleverage-0.1036
-1.72*
λ₁tau intercept4.9066
0.81
λ₂forecast adj.0.1965
1.08
λ₃tau persistence0.7814
3.81***

0.792

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2549
7.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5892
11.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1036
-1.72*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

4.9066
0.81
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1965
1.08
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7814
3.81***

Persistence:

0.792

Half-life:

3 days