V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
178.89%
1 Week
187.02%
1 Month
197.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 68% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2549 | 34.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5890 | 42.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1036 | -6.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.9461 | 2.09** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1969 | 4.84*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7812 | 15.40*** |
Persistence:
0.792
Half-life:
3 days
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