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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

231.54%

increased by 43.61%

1 Week

223.43%

increased by 35.50%

1 Month

212.71%

increased by 24.78%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 68% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2538
34.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5909
43.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1024
-6.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

4.9502
2.10**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1967
4.85***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7814
15.46***

Persistence:

0.793

Half-life:

3 days