V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
195.92%
increased by 0.97%
1 Week
199.66%
increased by 4.71%
1 Month
211.96%
increased by 17.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 277.0894 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1060 | 32.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9759 | 215.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8559 | 14.13*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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