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CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

195.92%

increased by 0.97%

1 Week

199.66%

increased by 4.71%

1 Month

211.96%

increased by 17.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

277.0894
5.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1060
32.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9759
215.76***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8559
14.13***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days