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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

174.06%

decreased by 7.44%

1 Week

178.20%

decreased by 3.30%

1 Month

192.28%

increased by 10.78%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
15.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1036
26.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8793
224.76***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days