V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
174.06%
decreased by 7.44%
1 Week
178.20%
decreased by 3.30%
1 Month
192.28%
increased by 10.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 15.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1036 | 26.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8793 | 224.76*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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