V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
151.83%
decreased by 5.21%
1 Week
157.34%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
175.62%
increased by 18.58%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 3.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.0973 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8795 | 56.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.0122 | 0.18 |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0973 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8795 | 56.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0122 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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