V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
28.87%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Week
29.97%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
33.16%
increased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 114% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 114% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2624 | 5.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.2176 | 5.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8015 | 33.56*** |
| γleverage | -0.1161 | -2.06** |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2624 | 5.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2176 | 5.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8015 | 33.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1161 | -2.06** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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