V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
58.22%
increased by 30.16%
1 Week
57.13%
increased by 29.07%
1 Month
53.59%
increased by 25.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 116% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 116% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2643 | 5.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.2183 | 5.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8015 | 33.61*** |
| γleverage | -0.1175 | -2.08** |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2643 | 5.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2183 | 5.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8015 | 33.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1175 | -2.08** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
Other ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices