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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

28.87%

decreased by 1.78%

1 Week

29.97%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Month

33.16%

increased by 2.51%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 114% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 114% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2624
5.68***
αARCH0.2176
5.46***
βGARCH0.8015
33.56***
γleverage-0.1161
-2.06**

0.961

Persistence

17d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2624
5.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2176
5.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8015
33.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1161
-2.06**

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days