V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
35.58%
increased by 2.52%
1 Week
36.06%
increased by 3.00%
1 Month
37.50%
increased by 4.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 114% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2626 | 22.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2197 | 21.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8005 | 133.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1171 | -8.27*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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