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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

35.58%

increased by 2.52%

1 Week

36.06%

increased by 3.00%

1 Month

37.50%

increased by 4.44%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 114% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2626
22.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2197
21.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8005
133.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1171
-8.27***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days