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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

58.22%

increased by 30.16%

1 Week

57.13%

increased by 29.07%

1 Month

53.59%

increased by 25.53%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 116% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 116% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2643
5.70***
αARCH0.2183
5.46***
βGARCH0.8015
33.61***
γleverage-0.1175
-2.08**

0.961

Persistence

17d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2643
5.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2183
5.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8015
33.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1175
-2.08**

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days