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V-Lab

TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

78.10%

decreased by 5.09%

1 Week

79.90%

decreased by 3.29%

1 Month

84.68%

increased by 1.49%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 99% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0231
15.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1777
17.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8076
95.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0882
-6.01***

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days