V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
122.05%
increased by 10.03%
1 Week
119.18%
increased by 7.16%
1 Month
110.89%
decreased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 03:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0364 | 3.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.1785 | 4.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8067 | 23.59*** |
| γleverage | -0.0885 | -1.50 |
0.941
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0364 | 3.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1785 | 4.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8067 | 23.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0885 | -1.50 |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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