TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
70.06%
decreased by 2.21%
1 Week
73.00%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
80.52%
increased by 8.25%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 2, 2026 at 12:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0486 | 3.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.1781 | 4.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8060 | 23.45*** |
| γleverage | -0.0876 | -1.49 |
0.940
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0486 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1781 | 4.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8060 | 23.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0876 | -1.49 |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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