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TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

122.05%

increased by 10.03%

1 Week

119.18%

increased by 7.16%

1 Month

110.89%

decreased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 03:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0364
3.87***
αARCH0.1785
4.29***
βGARCH0.8067
23.59***
γleverage-0.0885
-1.50

0.941

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0364
3.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1785
4.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8067
23.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0885
-1.50

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days