TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
81.35%
decreased by 5.62%
1 Week
82.75%
decreased by 4.22%
1 Month
86.50%
decreased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0424 | 3.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.1784 | 4.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8063 | 23.57*** |
| γleverage | -0.0880 | -1.49 |
0.941
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0424 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1784 | 4.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8063 | 23.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0880 | -1.49 |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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