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V-Lab

CBOE Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

85.35%

decreased by 2.79%

1 Week

89.15%

increased by 1.01%

1 Month

96.48%

increased by 8.34%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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graph of CBOE Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.6989
19.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2061
19.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7853
145.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2061
-19.40***

Persistence:

0.888

Half-life:

6 days