V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
108.35%
increased by 12.68%
1 Week
107.29%
increased by 11.62%
1 Month
105.09%
increased by 9.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.7010 | 4.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.2062 | 4.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7851 | 36.41*** |
| γleverage | -0.2062 | -4.85*** |
0.888
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.7010 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2062 | 4.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7851 | 36.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2062 | -4.85*** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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