V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
95.51%
decreased by 1.79%
1 Week
98.05%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
104.08%
increased by 6.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1992 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.8500 | 4.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.2614 | 9.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6614 | 32.28*** |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8500 | 4.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2614 | 9.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6614 | 32.28*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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