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V-Lab

CBOE Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

96.28%

decreased by 3.94%

1 Week

98.66%

decreased by 1.56%

1 Month

103.19%

increased by 2.97%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -5.55) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0893
2.48**
αARCH0.1074
10.62***
βGARCH0.7740
58.64***
γleverage-5.5534
-7.43***

0.881

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0893
2.48**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1074
10.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7740
58.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-5.5534
-7.43***

Persistence:

0.881

Half-life:

5 days