V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
96.28%
decreased by 3.94%
1 Week
98.66%
decreased by 1.56%
1 Month
103.19%
increased by 2.97%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -5.55) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0893 | 2.48** |
| αARCH | 0.1074 | 10.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7740 | 58.64*** |
| γleverage | -5.5534 | -7.43*** |
0.881
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0893 | 2.48** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1074 | 10.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7740 | 58.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -5.5534 | -7.43*** |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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